Writing
A working journal — essays, notes, and annotated reading on policy, finance, and the analytical frameworks I keep returning to. Some pieces are timeless; others will age the moment a new dataset drops. I'll mark the latter clearly.
The US-Iran ceasefire collapsed in July and fighting resumed. I re-ran the same 28-asset analysis from February. The pattern came back. The reaction did not.
The US-Iran war lasted almost four months. Using an event-study baseline and 28 financial assets, I tested whether the war drove the moves we saw. It did. For about two weeks.
India opened 530 million bank accounts for the unbanked. The states with the most accounts use the least digital payments. That reading is wrong, and the reason why changes how you think about fintech growth.
India's national UPI numbers are the most-cited and least useful figure in fintech investing. Here is what the state-level data actually shows, and the questions it should change.
A ransomware attack destroys a company's IT systems. The model predicts revenue will go up. A note on what went wrong, the duct tape that fixed it, and the rebuild that has now replaced most of the duct tape.
A short overview of an ML model I'm building to classify geopolitical events, predict company exposure, and estimate financial impact. What it does, what it doesn't, and what I'm learning.